Niche market: why indie devs could do better than giants

December 17, 2023

Say you're building an iOS widget for aesthetics, priced at $2.99 per year. With 100k paid users, after Apple's cut: 2.99 x 100k x 70% = $209,300. After taxes, you'd have roughly $140k profit.

Will large corporations compete here? Probably not, because:

  1. Market size is insufficient — The revenue barely covers a single full-time team. With staff averaging $200k annually, a five-person team costs $1M yearly, matching peak potential revenue. The economics don't work.

  2. Organizational inertia — Corporate hierarchies move slowly. Without promotion incentives from upper management, front-line teams lack motivation to invest energy here. If corporations do enter, the widget becomes one minor feature among many — "nice to have" rather than essential to the business.

The challenge is fierce competition within the niche itself. However, execution separates winners from the pack. Few people talk, fewer do, and fewer execute in a determined manner with full speed, creating opportunity for dedicated indie developers to thrive despite market constraints.

Inspired by Alpine.js creator Caleb Porzio (earning $100k through open-source) and MDStudio (beautiful iOS widgets).